In this article we will be discussing the crisis in the Korean peninsula.
We will start with a brief introduction about the Korean crisis and look at the reasons for the deterioration of the situation and progress towards the responses by various international actors and conclude with the way forward towards peace, progress and stability in the region.
Post Japanese surrender in World War II, the Korean peninsula was partitioned along the 38th parallel. United States aided in the establishment of a democratic government in the south and Russia helped in the establishment of a communist totalitarian regime in the north. The rift between North and South was amplified during the Cold war with US and Russia using the regimes to further their agenda. This proxy war led to increased tension among North and South Korea. Even after the end of Cold War and disintegration of the Soviet Union there North Korea has not given up its belligerent stand. The Korean director Kim Jong-Un and American president Donald Trump have played significant role in the evolution of the current situation. Kim Jong-Un took over the administration of North Korea is 2011 from his father Kim Jong-il. He has followed his father uncompromising stand on militarism and quest for nuclear weapons. Kim Jong-un has been criticized as a mad and ruthless dictator and renowned for being unpredictable decision making. North Korea had withdrawn from NPT in 2003 and has pushed forward ICBM tests disguised as satellite launches. It has also conducted series of nuclear tests the latest hydrogen bomb attracting global condemnation. Korea nuclear quest was aided by the AQ KHAN network. UN and the global community have responded with several sanctions on the North, in effect increasing isolationism and poverty in the nation.
North Korea is suspected of having miniaturized nuclear warheads capable of reaching US main land. North Korea has attempted to achieve strategic parity by developing nuclear deterrence. North Korea firmly believes that the specter of nuclear escalation world deter US from trying to subvert the regime. North Korean strategic thinking has feared that giving up the nuclear ambition would be akin to destruction of the regime. The experience of Muammar Gaddafi of Libya and Saddam Hussein of Iraq has not been particularly encouraging.
North Korea seems to be applying the strategy of escalate to deescalate. The regime has played the nuclear card in order to achieve concession. Kim Jong-un is guided by the belief that nuclear recognition of North Korea would secure the regimes survival.
The arrival of trump in the global scene has been of little help in the Korean issue .Trump too has been unpredictable in his decision making. Trump has been high on rhetoric and has been talking the tough talk .
Lack of American commitment and American indecisiveness has further complicated the issue. American which had so far played the role of self appointed global policeman has increasingly withdrew from global leadership and exhibited an inward looking policy stance. Soon after election trump criticized the NATO members as contributing little to the alliance and suggested that they should pay for the service.
Trump has disregarded prior commitments and is inclined towards deal breaking. Trump withdrew US from the Transpacific partnership (TPP) .US under his leadership has played the spoiler in Paris climate conference and 11th WTO ministerial conference in Buenos Aires.Trump has also tried to undermine the Iran nuclear deal, which had been brokered by P5+1 nations.
The international community has failed to evolve a consensus on how to handle the Korean crisis. Sanctions have failed to persuade North Korea to stop. Tactical options have been running out. Increasing isolation of North Korea has only lead to increasing complications.
The Chinese and Russians too have not been able to cash in their leverage against North Korea. They have been oscillating in their response to the crisis. They have been averse to the idea at a unified Korea fearing US dominance in their neighborhood. Any confrontation in the Korean peninsula would lead to an influx of refugees. The possibility of nuclear fallout at their door step has had them increasingly worried.
Japan and South Korea who are under the security cover of US have become increasingly jittery over the situation. American ambivalence has also added to their insecurities. South Korea has installed the American anti-ballistic missile defense system THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system).
Japan under the leadership of Shinzo Abe has shed away it is pacifistic constitution and shown willingness to engage in global issues. If South Korea and Japan chose to maintain a strategic arsenal for their defense it would further fuel the arms race and result in a domino effect, which would result in further deterioration of the situation.
There seems to be way out of this quagmire. The first and foremost need of the hour is to de-escalate tensions. Chest thumping should give way for quiet diplomacy. North should suspend it’s nuclear testing and agree to increased global inspections by International Atomic Energy Agency(IAEA). Sanctions should be reduced and Confidence Building Measures should be put in place.
Direct negotiations and multilateral engagement to bring about a comprehensive, sustained diplomatic solution is the only way forward. It is vital to revive the 6 party talks which comprises United States, Russia, China, Japan, South Korea and North Korea. The power disharmony should be addressed by mutual assurances and international guarantees. The eventual goal should be to attain global integration of North Korea paving way for peace, prosperity growth and development.